Rainfall Analysis

Nearly all annual wildflowers blooming in the spring will germinate in the fall. This includes most of the lupine species collectively named the state flower of Texas. Without plants, there cannot be wildflower displays. Without rain, there is less chance any seeds will germinate. Average rainfall does not guarantee a seed will germinate. Still, it does indicate areas that have a better chance of germination. Below is the October 2023 departure from Normal Rainfall map for Texas that includes the Brenham, Ennis and Hill Country Regions. Any location without color or not in yellow receive at least normal rainfall. Areas in green to pink receive above normal rainfall which increases the chances for germination of wildflower seeds. NOTE: Base Maps from NOAA – National Weather Service - https://water.weather.gov/precip/. No endorsement by NOAA is intended or implied. Use of the NOAA Observed Precipitation Maps is permitted under terms outline at: https://www.weather.gov/disclaimer#commenting_policy

Brenham Region October Departure from Normal Precipitation

Overall, the Brenham received at least normal rainfall and locations near Industry received above normal rainfall. Brenham’s average rainfall is usually higher than the Hill Country, so even average rainfall will likely exceed the average rainfall in the Hill Country.

Ennis Region October 2023 Departure from Normal Precipitation

All locations in the Ennis Region received well above normal rainfall for October 2023. Where there was good drainage and no standing water, there should be plenty of chances for germination in the Ennis Region.

Texas Hill Country October 2023 Departure from Normal Precipitation

All locations north of US 290 in the Hill Country Region received well above normal rainfall. There should have been ample chances for germination.

Temperature Analysis

Ground temperature during the fall and winter can influence germination and plant development. Too warm or too hot can prevent germination or change the timing of the spring flowering.

The average minimum temperature for December 2023-February 2024 for all regions was above normal, but below the December 2018-February 2019 time period. Note: the December 2009-February 2010 minimum temperatures were well below normal. Data for this analysis was pull from: NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: County Time Series, published March 2024, retrieved on March 13, 2024 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series

Based on my analysis of the fall and winter rainfall, we are on track for at least an average to probably an above-average season. Scouting reports indicate some areas are the best in 10 or more years. I am always very conservative and cautious in my analysis.